Tuesday 24 April 2018

1:50 Yarmouth Racing Tips (24th April)

A Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10) (Class 5) (2yo) over 5f 42y on good to firm going. Eight two-year-olds take part: two with racecourse experience and half dozen debutantes. 

A relatively cheap bunch with a mix of trainers. The betting would suggest five horses have a chance - the rest rags. Time will tell whether that is the case. As we know, most horses are priced by the general trainer standard rather than individual horse. 

The two form horses are interesting in their own way. 

Luchador ran well on debut at Kempton. Archie Watson has sent a few two-year-olds out this season without shaking too many trees. This bay daughter of Holy Roman Emperor. This home bred is owned by Al Asayl Bloodstock Ltd. She was pretty fancied that day, starting 13/2. It was a considerate introduction. Well drawn in stall (1), she was just off the pace and, perhaps, slightly outpaced or just as likely given time by her jockey. On turning the final bend, there were a few lengths to catch up which make winning look very unlikely. Luchador ran on well after being given a couple of taps and just missed out on third place. The form of that race looks fair without being anything special. However, considering she has valuable experience and sure to be ridden to win, that gives hope. Definitely a major player here.

Mick Channon has started this two-year-old season much better than the last few. The stable have stated that they wanted to get back to speedy juveniles and it have proven a good move with Izzer winning the Brocklesby, while other winners have run to expectation while a few bigger priced showing ample promise for future runs. Solesmes started her debut at Windsor on heavy going. This daughter of Gregorian was a bargain buy at 3,000G and still in the ownership of Channon, who will be looking to sell this youngster if winning today. She ran pretty well at Windsor when finishing fourth, especially considering the first three horses look fair if not better. She traveled well until being outpaced the in the final furlong. If that was to do with fitness she could hold each way claims.

William Haggas has fielded a couple of two-year-olds - both half fancied in the betting - but both disappointing to some extent. He does well at Yarmouth so worthy of respect. Carrie's Vision is a daughter of Oasis Dream and 50,000G yearling purchase. It is always difficult to assess debutantes from larger stables in ordinary races as they are prone to be priced short odds. Inexperience over 5f is not ideal. However, the stable do have a respectable win rate on debut and one who could go well. 

George Scott had a real flying machine last year with James Garfield. Willow Brook is a cheap yearling purchase at 8,000G. This chestnut daughter of Sepoy is best watched unless seriously backed. 

Robert Cowell has started this season with purpose and a number of two-year-old debutantes - costly buys - have made their start. Blame Roberta is a daughter of Blame in the ownership of Khalifa Dasmal. She cost $27,000 at the yearling sales.

The Last Party, Islay Mist & Equiano Pearl are best watched. 

Conclusion: If money is anything to go by, the majority of these horses are not specimens. Certainly, the two form horses have shown some level of ability. It is difficult to assess form lines at this time of year against the potential of a smart unraced opponent. Luchador ran well on debut and should improve. Looks the better of the two. Solesmes ran well for a good way at Windsor and if the testing going found her out may have each way claims. The form of that race looks fair although she was beaten a few lengths by the trio at the line. Carrie's Vision cost a decent amount and hails from a stable that do well here. Debutantes can be hard work to bet. At the odds, I would take a watching brief. I would just watch and learn rather than get too involved. The form horses are most likely to prevail