Sunday 29 April 2018

2:00 Salisbury Racing Tips (29th April)

A Fillies' Conditions Stakes (Plus 10) Class 3 over 5f on Heavy going. Ten two-year-olds take part worth £11,321 to the winner. 

Probably the best juvenile fillies' race we have seem this season. 

Lady Prancealot is the only winner. She has a win penalty following the defeat of Piccothepack. The form of her races has taken a couple of knocks and unless much better than seen, looks there to be shot at. 

The stable field Haariet who looks second string. 

Dean Ivory fields Penniesfromheaven. She was inexperienced on debut, when running on to be third, and then unlucky not to win when runner-up to Daphinia. The level of form doesn't look strong. This daughter of Lethal Force took a good while to pick up - finishing with spirit - and will need to do the same here. Whether this testing going will suit is open to debate. If needing a real test of stamina, may go better. However, I wouldn't take the plunge. 

Haats Off showed good pace in the Brocklesby before tiring quickly into fifth. She was outpaced at Southwell behind a couple of fair sorts. Brian Barr's filly was running on at the death. The going may not be a problem although if it is truly a mud bath then who knows. This filly is on the small side. Bookmakers have priced as though she has no chance. May show pace for a few furlongs if in-play traders want to bet to lay.

Kadiz, Cotubanama & Ginger Nut ran in the same race. It was run on ''good'' going at Newmarket. In many respects it was a puzzling affair. Hard Forest was the only form horse, and looked to hold every chance until tiring dramatically in the last half furlong. The race was over five seconds slow, which suggests it was on the soft side. The winner, Strings Of Life, ran on well and Charlie Appleby  said they had this filly earmarked for Royal Ascot. He said she would improve a good deal. The strange aspects of this race is that the early leaders looked to be tiring while those outpaced closed at the line. 

Kadiz traveled well. Richard Hughes charge was priced 33/1 and cruised through the race and just denied by half a length. There was a lot to like about that effort although the form is still difficult to assess. 

Mich Channon had a couple of horses entered that day. Cotubanama was the bigger priced of the two stablemates. However, this daughter of Heeraat wasn't best away and soon struggling for pace. The complexion of the race changed quite markedly in the final furlong and she looked to be running on. It could be be the case the leaders were slowing while she carried on at the same pace. By the way she run, this testing ground may well be a positive. 

Mark Johnston has been in good form and sent out a couple of two-year-old winners on Saturday. Diviner is making her debut. This daughter of Charm Spirit cost just 14,000 euros at the yearling sales. Not very expensive. The betting is the best guide. Very few of the stable's debutantes win priced over 16/1. 

Ginger Nut was relatively fancied in the betting that day [15/2] and finished just a head behind Cotubanama. Trained by Richard Hannon, this daughter of Sir Prancealot has similar claims to the above mentioned. 

Rod Millman fields outsider Mawde an £8000 yearling purchase. The stable often go well here with their two-year-olds but looks a stiff task.     

All Back To Me hails for a stable that can win at big prices. On balance, I would take a watching brief for Joseph Tuite's horse. 

Conclusion: A large field on heavy going. It is difficult to feel confident on such testing ground. The form horses have valuable experience and should hold the aces. The trio who raced at Newmarket look interesting. However, the form is difficult to assess. Kadiz traveled well that day. Cotubanama and Ginger Nut were ring rusty and both ran on with some verve. As mentioned, whether this was the leaders stopping or those in behind running on is difficult to assess. The going - if needing a test of stamina - may favour the latter. In many respects there doesn't look a great difference between them on debut. This second start may see each run markedly different. I'm not keen on the form of Lady Prancealot or Penniesfromheaven. The latter may enjoy this heavy going. A difficult race to assess and one I would rather watch.