Tuesday, 18 September 2018

Will Torcedor Make His Breakthrough At Melbourne Cup?

Torcedor has established himself as one of the leading competitors in the English flat season over two miles in 2018 and Jessica Harrington will be hopeful that her charge can end the term with a victory at the Melbourne Cup. 

The Irish horse rose to prominence in the 2017 season – notably with a victory over Order of St George in their clash at Navan in the Vintage Crop Stakes. Aidan O’Brien’s charge was the favourite for the event, but Torcedor produced the upset to win the race. It’s that sort of prowess on the track that makes the six-year-old one of the leading contenders in the bookmakers’ odds compiled by Oddschecker for the meet at Flemington Racecourse. 

Harrington’s charge was beaten at the end of the last campaign by Order of St George, who earned his revenge for the defeat at the British Champions Long Distance Cup. Colm O’Donoghue in the saddle got a fine performance out of the bay gelding, putting pressure down on his rival down the stretch. The two competitors battled down the final straight, but O’Brien’s charge proved to have the pace when it mattered at the crucial stage to clinch the Long Distance Cup

He returned to action for the start of the 2018 campaign in Meydan at the Dubai Gold Cup. However, Torcedor endured a miserable outing with the worst performance of his career, placing in last out of 16 competitors. The six-year-old needed a response to put the outing in Dubai behind him and O’Donoghue was able to bring out the best in his charge at Ascot in the Sagaro Stakes. 


The Irish horse was considered the favourite for the race and duly delivered on expectations with an accomplished display. He had a steady tempo throughout the meet after taking the lead six furlongs from the finish. Torcedor pulled away from the rest of the field to win by five lengths to get back to winning ways. The performance proved to be a fine warm-up for his next outing. Harrington put her charge forward for the Ascot Gold Cup. The bay gelding had competed in the event in 2017, only to finish off the pace of the leading group. Big Orange won the event ahead of Order of St George, with Torcedor placing down in fifth. He was an outsider with a starting price of 14/1 for the meet, but proved to be a true contender for the crown.

The six-year-old was able to match the pace of the leading group and was in with a shout of the victory with two furlongs remaining. His compatriot Stradivarius had the extra pace when need to pull ahead of Torcedor along with Vazirabad to take the crown. Torcedor did place in third ahead of Order of St George, highlighting the quality of the performance, although not quite good enough for the major victory. 

The Irish horse would collide with Stradivarius once again at the Goodwood Cup Stakes. John Gosden’s charge was the overwhelming favourite for the title considering his performance in the Ascot Gold Cup. O’Donoghue got a solid run out of Torcedor at Goodwood, but he could not close in on Stradivarius in the closing stages of the race as his rival had the speed to edge away from him, taking the race by half-a-length. Once again it proved that Harrington’s charge has the capability to compete at the major events, although the ultimate success evaded the bay gelding. 

The Melbourne Cup will give Torcedor a stronger opportunity to break his duck at a major event. The Irish horse does have five victories in the 19 races of his career, although the high point thus far has been his triumph over Order of St George at the Vintage Crop Stakes. 

He will face competition for the Melbourne Cup with Withhold being the leading contender among the bookies for the title following his win at the Stobart Rail & Civils Northumberland Plate Handicap. On the surface, Torcedor would appear to have a stronger calibre than Roger Charlton’s charge given the standard of competition he has faced over the season. Therefore the six-year-old could finally be ready to make his mark with a victory at Flemington at the beginning of November.

Friday, 7 September 2018

2:05 Ascot Racing Tips (7th September)

Betting at the races2:05 Ascot - 

7f Charbonnel Et Walker British EBF Maiden Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (Class 3) (2yo)

Going: Good 

Runners: 11

Bangkok -

Ran great race on debut for Andrew Balding. Deserved favourite who will take some beating. 

Murray River - 

John Gosden has a wealth of talented two-year-olds. This Derby entrant has fair each-way claims if priced 13/2 & less SP. 

Prince Eiji - 

Cost 2,600,000 guineas at the yearling sales. Stable can win on debut but will need to be a talent to lower the colours of the hot favourite. 

Fox Vardy - 

Great to see Martyn Meade training a Frankel 2yo in the ownership of King Power Racing Co Ltd. Meade can ready a debutant. 

Gambon - 

Once raced for Eve Johnston-Houghton. Ran a nice debut but been off course for over two months. 

God Has Given - 

An expensive yearling purchase costing 350,000 guineas in the ownership of the China Horse Club International Ltd. Not fancied in the betting but worth noting in the market. 

El Picador - 

Not best fancied on debut when eighth. Needs to find improvement. Unless seriously backed, others look more likely. 

Felix The Poet - 

Archie Watson has been inspired in these last few seasons. However, this gelding doesn't look fancied here. 

L'Un Deux Trois - 

Michael Bell can win with debutantes and some at big prices. This 50,000 euro purchase may be best watched today. 

Red Armada - 

Interesting that Clive Cox gave this horse a Group entry. He didn't look that good on debut and needs to improve. Maybe better than see. 

Conclusion: Bangkok is a worthy favourite after a smart debut. Prince Eiji could have each-way claims for Roger Varian. Red Armada needs to improve considerably but interesting why Cox gave this horse a Group entry. May have a little more going for it than looks. 

Monday, 27 August 2018

Pro Gambler: Betting Big Odds On

Odds On Loser Challenged by Clown
Pro gambler stores are always popular. To walk in the shoes of someone who puts their money down betting that they know a little more than the bookmaker who thinks they don't. A battle of wits, judgment and courage. 

I say courage because for some professional gamblers they have a lot more to lose than win. How come? 

When they bet huge odds on.   

Betting odds on takes a certain mentality. You find comfort in the fact that your horse is favourite, high-profile trainer, leading jockey takes the mount. All the money is on this beast so let's feel the safety in numbers. 

What could go wrong? 

Odds on winners are good news but odds on losers hit you hard. All that positivity comes back at you in the negative. You literally feel as though a clown is following you round the racecourse. He's pointing at you: smiling, laughing, sneering, mocking. You feel like your trousers are going to fall down at any moment and you can't remember if you put on boxers or not.

He shouts: ''Look at this chump, he backed an odds on loser!'' 

He gives you a couple of honks from his horn. Smiles. 

''Loser!''

He delves into a bag and pulls out a cream pie and everyone on the racecourse is watching. Even the commentator [Tommo] is keeping the crowd informed to a point they missed the finish of the last race. Bookmakers price up whether you will get the cream pie within the next few minutes. 

You'd bet on it yourself, but fearful of what happened to this poor loser. 

Out of the corner of your eye you spot a line of clowns limbering up with their best stuff. One is scooting round the course in a clown car as parts fall off along the way. 

I remember a story detailed in Dave Nevison's book which he spoke of one pro who bet huge odds on and hardly dare watch fearing any moment his horse would be struggling or notice (somehow) it was being ridden by a real clown. He's laughing at  the crowd as he fires confetti into he air. He yells: ''You f****** losers!!!!'' 

Too many times that big, strong, colt returns to the paddock with cream pie all over his face. 

Strangely, they never called for a stewards' inquiry. 

The perils of betting big odds on.

Saturday, 25 August 2018

The Reality of a Professional Gambler

Professional gambler storiesSo many punters would love to be a professional gambler. I must admit, I love a good professional gambler story. 

They detail often gritty, determined if not private people who have both ability and a dream. The focus being able to make a living and stay ahead of the game. No easy task. I noticed this comment from an anonymous reader who took the plunge and decided he could make it as a professional gambler. 

When betting it pays to use a decent website which offers the best bookmaker deals and check out odds because each point makes a difference over a season. Presently, punters are taking note of the next horse racing events. Take a look at the top 10 betting sites for horse racing, offer and more.

In response to this insightful post Becoming a Professional Gambler Anonymous said... 

This post is a true reflection of being a professional horse gambler. I tried to go pro a few years ago after a number of profitable years as a semi-pro. I had won around 15 grand over a 6 year period and decided to go for it. Unfortunately, it did not go to plan. Being a gambler doesn’t mean you have to spend a day on a horse racecourse and spend an entire paycheck. Usually, the things don’t go the way you want, and your favourite horse finishes the race behind all other – that’s a bad luck – but you also should know when to stop. 

The pressure is different when you go full time. You can try too hard or get negative when things don't go your way. With only betting the flat it is a short season to make money and I had a bad start to the season which really put me on the back foot. During the year I missed out on 2 big priced winners through family commitments both costing me nearly 100 points profit. These missed chances were very hard to take. I managed to get my act together late on in the year and won 5 grand in the last 10 weeks of my season but it was all too late. 

I had missed my chance and had to go back to working full time. It was a difficult time but I learnt a lot. I don't regret taking my chance. During my gambling over the last decade I have had a number of near misses to land big wins to break into the big time and with a little luck I know I could be betting full time now,. There is a very thin line between gambling and investing, the horse races are sometimes decided by inches and photo-finish, so it is always good to have a few horses as back up plan.

I have had 4 or 5 narrow defeats that cost me 25 grand in winnings. I even had 2 near misses in one week that cost me winnings of 12 grand. You are always left with the feeling of what if! I have had numerous big price winners. Horse racing can be lucrative in gambling, but you also have to think outside the “box” sometimes, if things are going south for your pocket. I have won 4 grand, and lots of 2 grand on single bets in my time to relatively small stakes but it is hard to break through when you have a family and commitments.

Have you ever fancied yourself as a professional gambler? Perhaps you gave it a go or still winning and making a living from what you know best. Great story from Tony Ansell: I've Made £750k Betting Honestly on horse racing. Good luck to all.

Thursday, 9 August 2018

Group Horse - The Best 2YO Horses in Training

Havana Grey full brother to Havana Ooh Na Na
That's correct. Group Horse Daily details the best of the best two-year-old race horses so you don't need to do any work at all. Just shows how generous some people can be, while others, give zilch. 

To detail how good this information is, we are posting here so you ca review the horses and take a look at the website which features lots of data you won't find anywhere else. You can find it yourself if you want a full-time job. 

Monday - 

Just four two-year-old races to consider. 

2:30 Pontefract - 

Class 2 race so all of these are noted by their respective trainers as talented to some degree.  

2:45 Wolverhampton - 

A twelve-strong field over 7f. William Haggas has *Eyelool taking part. This Irish bred gelding, a son of Dragon Pulse has been favourite on both starts to date over six furlongs. Wasn't best away on debut when behind Marten Mead's talent, Advertising, who showed class a Royal Ascot when runner up in the Coventry Stakes (Group 2). Eyelool has a wide draw, which isn't ideal, but stepping up to seven furlongs should help on that score. This could well be a drop in class. 

Karl Burke is a fantastic trainer. Not being funny, but if you can't make money off his two-year-olds you are doing something wrong. I'm not going to tell you all my ways but Swissterious is better than seen on debut. This bay colt didn't show much ability at all on debut at Nottingham but a decent lay off and step up in distance should be positives. May be worth a speculative bet if available at huge price. 

*NR

6:30 Windsor - 

A big field of fifteen two-year-olds. A wide (high) isn't ideal. The first horse to note is Chynna, trained by Mick Channon. Didn't do much wrong on her second start at Kempton. Not been seen for a couple of months so perhaps given time to strengthen up or may have had a problem. 

Richard Hannon has Ginger Nut who has plenty of pace if going on. Been a consistent type in four runs so far and should hit the frame. 

Interesting to see *One Kiss entered for David Evans after racing just three days ago. That was a hot race, with the first three up to pattern race standard. A wide draw isn't ideal. May well be a non runner. A horse who could go well in future. 

* NR

6:45 Hamilton - 

A five horse race. A sprint over 5f 7y on good to firm going. An interesting race. Although a couple of winners make the line up we have one horse with a significant entry. Karl Burke has the only horse noted here. This course is a starting point for many of their more talented juveniles. Havana Ooh Na Na is a full brother to Havana Grey who proved a really smart two-year-old for the stable winning multiple times at Group class. It is never easy for a debutante to lower the colours of winning opponents but this colt could be talented enough to do so. He has been earmarked for the Dragon Stakes Listed race at Sandown and this race has been taken as an ''easier'' alternative. I'm pretty sure this horse has a level of ability but not sure if I would jump in at short odds. If drifting a touch may be worth a small bet.  

Tuesday, 24 July 2018

The Logic Behind Winning Bets

They say: ''knowledge is power''. Within betting that saying holds substance. A fool and their money are soon parted. That's why, in my opinion, you should never bet for fun. Why? Because it can be a slippery slope to betting without thinking, following your emotions and the buzz associated with those feelings. Use a reputable bookmakers like www.novibet.co.uk to open an account and see if you can make your betting pay. (If you work hard, you can.)

Believe it or not, emotions are dangerous. How come? Because they are irrational and lack any logic.  

I'm sure all the greatest philosophers would agree that those two qualities go a long way to finding answers to questions. Picking a winning tip is finding an answer to a question. The question is a puzzle. Aristotle, the founder of logic said: 

''Rhetoric is the counterpart of logic; since both are conversant with subjects of such a nature as it is the business of all to have a certain knowledge of, and which belong to no distinct science. Wherefore all men in some way participate of both; since all, to a certain extent, attempt, as well to sift, as to maintain an argument; as well to defend themselves, as to impeach.'' 

Five tips built on logic:

1) Jack of all trades and master of none. If someone says they bet on everything and anything - they know very little and you don't want to even consider their opinion. Sounds harsh. Well, perhaps, but it makes sense, hey. Logic. 

2) Do it yourself. True, you can follow your favourite tipsters and some are very good. However, you will learn much more by doing the ''donkey'' work yourself. You will understand what makes a winner. And reason why it pays to specialise. It is the best opportunity you will have and your knowledge will be worth something. If you are one of those people who take a quick look at a race card on the wall of a bookmaker do yourself a favour and give up. It simply isn't possible to know more than the people who are laying the odds. Unless you know more you will lose. 

3) Bet small and build your betting bank. You don't need to bet like a pro to learn the ropes and make your betting pay. It takes the pressure of the gambling game and you can focus on what makes your betting pay by being objective. 

4) It's lovely to have a day at the races but do it rarely. Betting on course in not a good idea in this day and age and you need to search bookmakers and betting exchanges to find value. What is value? It is the difference between winning and losing. Make the most of every bet. 

5) Stick to one sport. Whether your passion is football, cricket, horse racing, greyhounds or even betting on the weather (some people do) don't spread yourself too thin. Also, if you are passionate about your sport you will find the determination to succeed when things get tough. 

Wednesday, 13 June 2018

Can Psychology Help you win at the races?

Fast as a horse?It's an interesting question.

I studies psychology to degree level. I learned about the study of mind and behaviour with the Open University. It did me proud in ways. Over six years later I gained a 2:1 BSc Psychology. A few marks short of a 1st. I'm competitive to a point. It was a slight irritation that I didn't get the top honours. Not that it mattered. I have never really done anything with my degree. Why? Because I completed the marathon study just to prove I could. I always knew I would but, at times, you have to prove the point.

I never doubted it for a second. The interesting point being that with that mind set I was 80% finished even before I had start the first module. 

What did I learn?

Lots. 

What would I tell others from my experience? Don't imagine you cannot achieve a degree even if you have no qualifications. Without doubt - you can if you really want it. 

I used to look at my class mates when they were 18 and going to universities around the UK if not the world. I wasn't sure where I was going. The CSE didn't give me too many options. 

That CSE was the best thing I could have got at that time as it proved a true motivator. 

But can psychology (I'm getting there) help you win at the races? 

So much of psychology is about psychopathology and addiction. It is a credible pursuit. 

I have found a few psychology theories and principles that can bring light on gambling. 

Bet I Can Throw A Six

Can Psychology of Chess Improve Your Gambling?

A Contrasting POINT On Gambling Psychology

I Followed that Horse Off a Cliff 


Tuesday, 15 May 2018

Betting Outside Your Comfort Zone

Betting outside your comfort zone
Betting. 

How much would you have to bet before you felt uneasy? In ''uneasy'' I mean how many pounds, shilling and pence before you'd feel pretty peed off if it lost? 

The old maxim: ''Bet what you can afford to lose'' is, I guess, what most people do. 

Sensible.

Very few people bet crazy amounts of money fun. A percentage do who have a problem. But even those of a compulsive nature probably do their dough betting £20, £50 or £100 a time. 

Please, don't bet if you do not have a good reason why you can win. If you are basing your ''skills'' on looking at the form on the wall of your local bookmakers your knowledge base isn't likely to put you ahead of the game.  It's like studying for a test without really reading the book. There are plenty of pages bar the first and last. 

I love to watch business stuff, videos, info and people chatting about investing money. This bloke asked how much money would you invest. Basically, investing money you can afford to lose. He said about 30% of his savings. But this varies from person to person. Makes sense, hey!   

It depends on your comfort zone. It's a similar question with betting. How much is too much for you?

We have all seen people who have lost too much. While others are enjoying their day they sit withdrawn, blank expression, thinking how the hell did I lose all that money. They are struggling because it was more than they wanted to lose. Not a good feeling. Stepping outside that comfort zone.

Very few people would contemplate betting all their money on the spin of a roulette wheel. 

Black or red? 

Not many people would feel comfortable doing that. But how many could bet all their money - lose - and say: ''Let's go get something to eat, and you're paying'' and act as though nothing happened? In actual fact, not caring that it had happened?

I guess there are some people who could. I would love to meet them because they must be very confident they can make that money again. 

I imagine a number of people who have bet and lost all of their money are more likely to climb the stairs of the nearest high building and jump than decide which burger they want to eat.  

When betting, don't push yourself to the extreme if you cannot handle the consequence of the loss. Don't just think of the small loss on the day. If you have lost a fortune over the years, what is the total? It could well be £50,000. Did breaking those bets into smaller sums make it easier to swallow? 

I guess so. But it's still the same as betting a bloody big wedge. 

Be wise when you bet. 

Monday, 7 May 2018

When is the best time to bet?

Time to bet
It's a pretty open ended question. 

How often do you bet?

I've often been criticized for not betting enough. ''What are you waiting for?'' Impatient. I understand the regular Joe at the bookmakers is waiting for the next race. He's an eager devil waiting for the next race before the last has finished. Most bet on favourites. If the horse races don't come fast enough they dabble with the greyhounds. Trap 1. If that isn't enough, they bet on virtual racing. The only good thing about that is animal welfare. 

The two-year-old season isn't like any other age group of horse. 

Each year we start with a blank slate. A fictitious piece of chalk in hand, drawing a picture of long-legged horse. Yes, it's black and white. The picture forms with every day's racing. I feel like George Stubbs, the English painter of horses. Whistlejacket. That was one of the horses he painted, not a jacket you wear to wolf whistle girls.  

It takes time to understand the early two-year-old racing. Without a reference point - a level of ability - we're guessing. That doesn't sound like understanding or objectivity. It isn't a word someone would invest money, hey. I kind of ''guess'' the price of oil will go up. It doesn't instill much hope. 

So the early season is all about watching the races and individual horses; to learn about each.I have watched a race twenty times. It can be a tiring endeavour. I have been known to fall to sleep mid race or watch one umpteen times because I keep dropping off before they cross the line. However, you can just about guarantee I watch every race and horse (repeatedly). Why? Because I want to know more than the average punter. Joes Bloggs doesn't really think about these things. Understanding, knowledge & proven ability takes time. 

The early-season form can be tricky. A horse finished second, so everyone thinks it will win next time out. It might do just that. But if it beats a slow horse (remember, we don't know it is a slow horse, yet) then we may bet and feel like a complete idiot. So many horses are beaten in this manner. We wait until those form lines start to build. In addition, using Group Horse, I look for significantly entered juveniles. In truth, I have a number of ways to make assessment. All parts of the jigsaw puzzle. 

The season started in March and I still haven't had a bet. Most people would be pulling out their hair, teeth chattering, eyes bulging as they look at the race cards in the daily paper. I could wait forever. I'm not betting for fun or humour, the buzz or whatever. I bet for all the right reasons. That it is a bet with value. 

Never feel as though you are in a rush to bet. Don't look for bets. It will addle your brain to a point where you don't know when or why you are betting. Betting isn't fun. It shouldn't be fun. Losing money isn't fun. It is business. Bet for all the right reasons. 

You will know when it is time to bet. 

Sunday, 29 April 2018

2:00 Salisbury Racing Tips (29th April)

Free Horse Racing Tips
A Fillies' Conditions Stakes (Plus 10) Class 3 over 5f on Heavy going. Ten two-year-olds take part worth £11,321 to the winner. 

Probably the best juvenile fillies' race we have seem this season. 

Lady Prancealot is the only winner. She has a win penalty following the defeat of Piccothepack. The form of her races has taken a couple of knocks and unless much better than seen, looks there to be shot at. 

The stable field Haariet who looks second string. 

Dean Ivory fields Penniesfromheaven. She was inexperienced on debut, when running on to be third, and then unlucky not to win when runner-up to Daphinia. The level of form doesn't look strong. This daughter of Lethal Force took a good while to pick up - finishing with spirit - and will need to do the same here. Whether this testing going will suit is open to debate. If needing a real test of stamina, may go better. However, I wouldn't take the plunge. 

Haats Off showed good pace in the Brocklesby before tiring quickly into fifth. She was outpaced at Southwell behind a couple of fair sorts. Brian Barr's filly was running on at the death. The going may not be a problem although if it is truly a mud bath then who knows. This filly is on the small side. Bookmakers have priced as though she has no chance. May show pace for a few furlongs if in-play traders want to bet to lay.

Kadiz, Cotubanama & Ginger Nut ran in the same race. It was run on ''good'' going at Newmarket. In many respects it was a puzzling affair. Hard Forest was the only form horse, and looked to hold every chance until tiring dramatically in the last half furlong. The race was over five seconds slow, which suggests it was on the soft side. The winner, Strings Of Life, ran on well and Charlie Appleby  said they had this filly earmarked for Royal Ascot. He said she would improve a good deal. The strange aspects of this race is that the early leaders looked to be tiring while those outpaced closed at the line. 

Kadiz traveled well. Richard Hughes charge was priced 33/1 and cruised through the race and just denied by half a length. There was a lot to like about that effort although the form is still difficult to assess. 

Mich Channon had a couple of horses entered that day. Cotubanama was the bigger priced of the two stablemates. However, this daughter of Heeraat wasn't best away and soon struggling for pace. The complexion of the race changed quite markedly in the final furlong and she looked to be running on. It could be be the case the leaders were slowing while she carried on at the same pace. By the way she run, this testing ground may well be a positive. 

Mark Johnston has been in good form and sent out a couple of two-year-old winners on Saturday. Diviner is making her debut. This daughter of Charm Spirit cost just 14,000 euros at the yearling sales. Not very expensive. The betting is the best guide. Very few of the stable's debutantes win priced over 16/1. 

Ginger Nut was relatively fancied in the betting that day [15/2] and finished just a head behind Cotubanama. Trained by Richard Hannon, this daughter of Sir Prancealot has similar claims to the above mentioned. 

Rod Millman fields outsider Mawde an £8000 yearling purchase. The stable often go well here with their two-year-olds but looks a stiff task.     

All Back To Me hails for a stable that can win at big prices. On balance, I would take a watching brief for Joseph Tuite's horse. 

Conclusion: A large field on heavy going. It is difficult to feel confident on such testing ground. The form horses have valuable experience and should hold the aces. The trio who raced at Newmarket look interesting. However, the form is difficult to assess. Kadiz traveled well that day. Cotubanama and Ginger Nut were ring rusty and both ran on with some verve. As mentioned, whether this was the leaders stopping or those in behind running on is difficult to assess. The going - if needing a test of stamina - may favour the latter. In many respects there doesn't look a great difference between them on debut. This second start may see each run markedly different. I'm not keen on the form of Lady Prancealot or Penniesfromheaven. The latter may enjoy this heavy going. A difficult race to assess and one I would rather watch.