Why Steering Clear of the Favourite in the Grand National Betting is Strongly Advised

The Grand National is always a thoroughly absorbing and entertaining spectacle and is a race that evokes plenty of opinion from both racing enthusiasts and novices. The four-mile steeplechase, which commands a forty-strong field, regularly provides drama and excitement but it remains one of the toughest races on the calendar to predict. With such a competitive line-up and a huge number of fences to clear, there is a high chance of an upset and opposing the favourites in the market is strongly advised.

Just five favourites have prevailed in the race since 1990 and the event, which is staged at Aintree Racecourse, is one of the biggest sporting events of the year. Don't Push It was the last favourite to land the spoils under a superb ride from Tony McCoy back in 2010, going off as the joint 10/1 fancy at the top of the market alongside Big Fella Thanks, who came home in fourth. Hedgehunter and Comply or Die are also relatively recent winners who started at single-figure odds but these success stories are few and far between.

With 40 runners all hurtling across the turf in close proximity, bumps and knocks regularly occur and any small encroachment or nudge can disrupt the rhythm of another participant thus affecting the outcome of the event. There are very small margins in such a crowded field.Several runners have been taken down during the early stages of the race by a falling horse which has blocked their patch and this has put pay to their chances barely a mile into the contest. In the 2017 staging of the event, Definitly Red was amongst the leading fancies but was badly hampered early in the contest and had to be pulled up. Trainer Brian Ellison is back for another shot with his nine-year-old stable star and according to the latest betting from Oddschecker, he is the 20/1 second favourite for the 2018 race behind Blaklion.

The Nigel Twiston-Davies runner went off as the 8/1 favourite in last year's event and after a promising start, faded late on and finished a tired looking fourth. He is unproven at the distance having never prevailed in any race longer than 3m 2f and that puts a huge question mark over his chances once again. He was imperious in the Becher Chase back in December 2017 beating Highland Lodge and the Last Samurai but is far from a sure thing in this significantly longer contest.

Abolitionist is just one example of a runner who is capable of springing a surprise. The Dr Richard Newland trained ten-year-old is an Irish National winner and is returning from an injury layoff. Mala Beach has recently won at Navan and could be an interesting contender if conditions take a turn for the worse. The Gordon Elliott trainer ten-year-old has shown plentyof versatility including two victories on heavy going.

One For Arthur was the surprise winner of last year's contest, rewarding backers who had supported the 14/1 shot for trainer Lucinda Russell. Previous races have been landed by 33/1 (Rule the World), 25/1 (Many Clouds) and 66/1 (Auroras Encore) fancies and such lofty oddscan hugely reward each-way backers. 2009 winner Mon Mome was one of the biggest price winners in the last forty years of the Grand National coming home at an eye-watering 100/1.

If a favourite somehow comes through the mire and crosses the line ahead of the chasing pack, a better strategy remains to pick out some bigger priced alternatives. Many online bookmakers will pay out for the first five places however if you shop around, a number of betting sites will stretch to 6th and 7th positions for a race of this magnitude and this can be a great way of securing some returns. In 2010, Don't Push It may have rewarded favourite-backers however the places were filled by 14-1, 16-1 and 20-1 shots whilst in 2016, Vics Canvas finished 3rd at 100/1 followed by Gilgamboa under Robbie Power who returned 28-1.

Every Grand National bettor will have their own unique system, some are profitable; others less so. Backing the favourite has not been particularly rewarding in recent years and due to the competitive nature of the event coupled with the sheer volume of traffic en-route, it is often as much about luck as it is judgement. It is advised to look beyond the top of the marketand find a big price alternative instead. This is a much better way of enjoying the Aintree spectacle and it could be a strategy that pays dividends this year.

Will Minella Rocco Pull A Surprise At The Grand National?

All eyes will be on Aintree for the Grand National on April 14 as a new champion will be confirmed at the event. One For Arthur won the prestigious race last season with a fine performance, but injury has forced him to withdraw, ending his opportunity to end the crown. His absence will open up the opportunity for the rest of the field to etch their place in history. There are a number of talented runners in the field, including horses that triumphed at Cheltenham Festival last month. Total Recall raced at the Festival, but put forward a poor performance at the Gold Cup, whereas Tiger Roll was outstanding in the Cross Country Chase, defeating Cause of Causes among a strong group of competitors.

As a result, it’s always best to consult the form guide when at Timeform.com before placing a punt for the National. The race can be unpredictable, but there will be one competitor – Minella Rocco- desperate to prove a point after being pulled from the race by trainer Jonjo O’Neill, despite being considered one of the leading contenders for the crown among leading bookmakers ahead of the contest. The bay gelding will face a challenge to find his best form, although he does have proven pedigree looking back over the course of his career.

Minella Rocco made his breakthrough in the 2015/16 National Hunt campaign, making his mark at Cheltenham Festival. The Irish horse secured the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup, with Derek O’Connor in the saddle. He started the event at the back of the field before beginning his surge three fences from the end of the race. The bay gelding beat out future Gold Cup winner Native River by one-and-three-quarter lengths, highlighting his potential for the future with a brilliant run.

He returned to the action for the new campaign and suffered a narrow loss in the BetVictor Handicap Chase at Cheltenham, despite being considered the leading contender for the victory. Minella Rocco lost momentum in the midway stage of the season, falling for the first time of his career in a meet at Aintree before unseating Aidan Coleman at the Irish Gold Cup. The preparation for the Cheltenham Gold Cup was not ideal, but O’Neill’s charge still had a puncher’s chance at the major event of the Festival.

Noel Fehily kept the Irish horse at the back of the field for the start of the race before beginning a push three fences from the end of the meet. He tried to close the gap to Sizing John, but could not match the pace of his rival, losing out by two-and-three-quarter lengths. Minella Rocco finished strong to place second ahead of Native River, which suggested that he could do damage over a greater distance at Aintree in the National.

However, O’Neill opted to pull the bay gelding from the action to preserve him for the next campaign. His return to the track did not go to plan at the Irish Daily Star Chase, placing in fourth well off the pace in Punchestown, failing to rise to the occasion. He then endured an unhappy return to Cheltenham, pulling up in the BetVictor Handicap Chase. There was an opportunity for Minella Rocco to hit back at the Leopardstown Christmas Chase, and although there was a slight improvement in his performance he was still far from his best, sitting back in fourth place.

For the second year on the bounce, Minella Rocco failed to complete the Irish Gold Cup. On this occasion, he fell at the last fence but was not in contention for the crown. The plan for O’Neill was to put his charge forward for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but the weather at the event forced the trainer’s hand once again, withdrawing the Irish horse due to conditions on the ground. There is undoubted potential with the bay gelding, highlighted by his performance at Cheltenham in 2016. Minella Rocco has failed to record a victory in eight races, with his form deserting him during the last campaign. He still has solid odds to win the National and the distance and the course could play into his hands, although it will still take a flawless performance to secure the crown.

Grand National 2018: The Housewife's Favourite

Who doesn't love a bet on the Grand National?

As the saying goes: it's the housewife's favourite. Betting on a name that catches your eye, those pink silks look like a winner, lucky number 7, didn't that horse win last year?

This year's Grand National 2018 

5:15 Aintree - Randox Health Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1)

One horse who could be a real player this year is Blaklion trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies. This nine-year-old bay gelding is a son of Kayf Tara. He won last time out at Aintree in heavy going. With total prize winning of almost £400,000 this horse will be many a punter's fancy. Fill your boots at Williamhill who presently have this horse priced at odds of 10/1. A worth each-way bet. 

A little Grand National Trivia

This historic handicap steeplechase is run over 4 mile 4 furlong at Aintree and sponsored by Crabbie's. 

It was first run in 1839. The Grand National is televised in 140 countries and viewed by an audience of 600 million. 

Horses jump 30 fences including Bechers' Brook, Foinavon, the Canal Turn & The Chair over two grueling circuits. 

The Greatest Horse

Red Rum is a true legend of this race winning three times in the 1970s. Trained by the late Ginger McCain, he won the Grand National in 1973, 1974 & 1977. He finished second in 1975 & 1976. 

The Luckiest Winner

Foinavon proved that you sometimes you need a little bit of luck when winning in 1967. This 100/1 was lagging 100 yards behind the pack when a loose horse named Popham Down caused mayhem at the 23rd fence hampering or unseating most of the field. Foinavon had time to steer round the havoc and none of the opposition had time to catch him.

The Most Humbling Victory 

Few people will ever forget Bob Champion's win in 1981 aboard Aldantini. Two years before this race, Champion had been given only months to live after being diagnosed with cancer. Aldaniti had recovered from chronic leg problems but the pair went on to beat SpartanMissile by four and half lengths in an emotional victory. Their story was made into a film, Champions, starring John Hurt.

Grand National Records:

Mr Frisk (1990) 8 minute 48 seconds (Fastest winner)
Peter Simple (1853) 15 years (Oldest winning horse)
Bruce Hobbs (1938) 17 years old (Youngest winning jockey)
5 horses have won at 100/1 (Longest winning odds)
(1929) 66 runners (Largest field)

(1883) 10 runners (Smallest field)

Whatever you bet on the big day, good luck. 

2018 Grand National - What An Offer

The most historic steeplechase in the world. It has to be the Grand National.  

Get ready for this year's race on the 14th April at 5:15.

Two long circuits to get a huge crowd cheering for more. Four long miles & two furlongs. Remember Red Rum? He won three times in 1973, 1974 & 1977. His trainer, Ginger McCain, became as famous as this imperious horse. Could we see a horse win the Grand National three times in this modern era? It would seem unlikely. But who would have believed so many stories related to this hard race.  

In truth, for many, the Grand National is the most famous race in the world. Horses, jockeys, trainers, punters and a betting bonanza with plenty of Offers at the Grand National. It takes a talented, tough and lucky horse to win at Aintree, Liverpool. 

The Grand National History tells a story of triumph over adversity.

The history of this race goes back to 1839 when a horse named Lottery won at 5/1, ridden by Jem Mason. In those days, the Grand National was a race of fearful fences. 

It was probably the reason why Tipperary Tim & Gregalach proved that lightning can strike twice when these 100/1 shots won in 1928 & 1929, respectively.

Other 100/1 winners include Caughoo (1947), Foinavon (1967) & Mon Mome (2009).

Five 100/1 winners. It just shows you don't need to be a favourite backer to make your betting pay. 

Stories never to be forgotten...

The 1981 Grand National was unforgettable for two reasons: Aldaniti and Bob Champion. A jockey fighting against cancer, and horse who at one time could barely walk. The pair won at 10/1. In the process, Champion went on to not only survive but raise millions of pound for cancer research. Their story was made into the film Champions starring John Hurt. To this day, Carl Davis's theme tune is still associated with the Grand National.

Corbiere and Mrs Jenny Pitman

It took a long time for the first woman to train a National winner. Jenny Pitman was an iron lady who was a straight talker and new she had a real talent in Corbiere.  In 1983, Corbiere, ridden by Ben de Haan, won the National at 13/1. It was a strong race with many old favourites such as West Tip and Classified.

Mr Frisk the fastest of them all

In 1990 Mr Frisk recorded a time of 8.47.8 – it was the fastest ever due to faster going. It is very unlikely this time will ever be beaten.  

Don't Push It, Tony.

A P McCoy took well over a decade to claim this illusive title when Don't Push It prevailed in 2010. He was knighted after retiring in 2015.

The Randox Health Grand National.

14^th April - 5:15 Aintree