Saturday, 29 September 2018

A Betting Strategy for Your Favourite Horse Trainers

Betting odds. 

Whether we are talking 6/4 of 1000/1 they mean something. Price to chance. The odds of winning or losing. At the end of the day, they detail one thing: an opinion. I guess unless you are betting in a vacuum, it is a consensus of opinions to form one opinion detailed in a fraction or decimal. 

This story is anecdotal rather than based on data. However, I could easily run a test on a given trainer to pinpoint an interesting fact about betting odds. I've noticed that certain horse trainers have an increased chance of winning when their runner is at a given price or within a certain range. 

I'm not just stating that the shorter the price a horse the better chance it has of winning. That isn't always the case. 

I remember years ago, and I'm talking a long time, when Ron Boss used to train in Newmarket. 

Ron was an astute trainer of two-year-olds. For the size of his string, he always found a decent horse. Very much in the mold of Paul Kelleway, he wasn't scared to contest the highest class even when others scratched their head.

 A few readers may remember Mon Tresor winning the Middle Park Stakes (Group 1). You need a long memory to remember 1988. It was the start of my interest in two-year-old horse racing. I had the Racing Post delivered every day. I could recall every horse, form line, winner to a point of being a potential candidate for Master Mind. Ron Boss was a character. He was a superb trainer. 

The funny thing I always noted about him was his knack at winning with two-year-old colts and fillies on their second start. They are very consistent when priced at certain odds. This may have been a coincidence, but every time he had a winner they seemed to win  second start at odds of 11/2. 

It was uncanny.

I have noticed similarities with other trainers. I'm not going to detail them here because I don't want to just give my best info away. 

However, I would suggest to those punters who follow a given trainer to take note of the horses that win on debut or second start and see if you can spot a pattern. 

I know I have found a number who remind me of the good old days.   

Where are they now? Read about Ron Boss.

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